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Post by sunshine on Dec 21, 2015 0:48:05 GMT -5
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Post by withlove on Dec 21, 2015 1:16:59 GMT -5
Simpleton, some of the things you mentioned the exes have been willing to do, has been the case for a very long time. A thesis was written about the 2x2s in the 60s, the Secret Sect in the 80s, and since then it has snowballed. (For that matter, from the start there were articles and pamplets written about the 2x2s.) There might be a 50% decline by now, but the damage has been done. The end game is what needs to be considered. The current end game seems to be managing the decline. But, workers have not been known to be good managers of this decline. What took about 60-80 years to build from nothing has been reduced to a near carcass in 35-45 years. Do those that profess see the decline? I'm curious to know if it's seen beyond the casual 'there used to be so many people in this or that meeting'. I haven't actually noticed any decline in the last 30 years, and have lived in several different states...in fact, I seem to notice way more young people at conventions than ever.. The decline is real. Travel is cheaper and more available than ever. Young people know the dating pool is shrinking, and they need to hit as many conventions as possible (preferably the large ones or the ones they know will have a crowd of peers so they can find spouses. People are more often attending conventions for weekends only. Some conventions have closed completely.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 22, 2015 10:11:38 GMT -5
As an aside. Noah was a preacher of righteousness. It looks like for 100 years he put his energies into building an ark to save himself. Other than a few close family members it seems his preaching efforts were extremely poor?
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Post by Deleted on Dec 22, 2015 15:29:12 GMT -5
The real decline is in Barry Barkley's country. USA east of the Rocky's save Minnesota and Wisconsin. The Dakotas and Iowa are doing ok. Go from central IL, IN south of Indy, southern OH, PA and all the way south to the Gulf Coast and see the decline. Include Arkansas and Mizzou save for the Rogers=Blackwater area. Florida has one convention and 20 million worldlings.
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Post by Tim Jones 'kyblue' on Dec 25, 2015 23:35:42 GMT -5
The real decline is in Barry Barkley's country. USA east of the Rocky's save Minnesota and Wisconsin. The Dakotas and Iowa are doing ok. Go from central IL, IN south of Indy, southern OH, PA and all the way south to the Gulf Coast and see the decline. Include Arkansas and Mizzou save for the Rogers=Blackwater area. Florida has one convention and 20 million worldlings. The decline is indeed more noticeable here in the south, but really the decline is evident across all 50 states. It's just smaller out west. In the last 15 or so years, there have been at least 8 states that have merged (IN/IL, SC/NC, ND/SD, KY/TN), and I believe there will be more mergers before long.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 28, 2015 10:20:52 GMT -5
In the Eastern USA, particularly New England and Mid-Atlantic states, there are essentially no 2x2s of any significant number. One meeting here, one meeting there, etc. As a percentage of the population in those regions, there are more people killed in automobile accidents per month than there are 2x2s. In the tiny number of meetings which do exist, they are overwhelmingly composed of people very advanced in age and near unto death. So it can be reasonably predicted that in 10 years, there won't be enough 2x2s in the Eastern USA to warrant even a meeting let alone a convention.
To put some real numbers to it: New York City = 8.4 million people live within the city limits Meetings in NYC = 3 Size of average NYC meeting = 10 people. Total 2x2s in NYC = aprox 30. 30 people out of a population of 8,400,0000. It's so small, that it's not even worth talking about. Worker pairs in NYC = 1. That's equivalent to 1 worker pair covering all of British Columbia and Alberta combined. Or equivalent to all of Washington State and Idaho combined. Composition of NYC 2x2s = almost exclusively recent African immigrants from the Caribbean. NYC was the first point of landing for 2x2s when the first workers came to the USA. Not particularly impressive numbers at all.
2x2ism had it's heyday when there were lots of folks who couldn't read very well. Once folks started to be able to comprehend the Gospels, it was all downhill from there. Nowadays, the internet is the sunlight to the 2x2s confused message.
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Post by CherieKropp on Dec 28, 2015 11:58:39 GMT -5
clearday used to post statistics. Here's a statement from him I received last week:
Using a starting date back to about 1993, then 40% decline would be a reasonable number. The decline started around 1993 and the rate of decline increased for about 10 years before starting to slow down. My observation of the last 5 years or so is that the rate of decline is now very slow but still exists. By 2020, it should be stabilized at a plateau unless new events change the direction one way or the other.
The rate of decline lessened after about 2005 as a number of the issues, which were the impetus for people leaving, lessened their impact. Issues like the history, CSA, and control (legalism) are unlikely to cause significant numbers to leave today. Neither will doctrinal differences with mainstream evangelicals become a significant issue anymore.
On the new membership side, the group faces the same headwinds as most organized churches: a broad movement away from organized. corporate worship, Overseas experiences with ESL has given many workers some skills in working with immigrants through ESL teaching and they are finding a small evangelistic niche that way. Otherwise, interest from established citizens remains minimal.
Demographics also continue to work against the F&W's. Families are smaller. Offsetting that is that there is a slightly higher retention rate among children, much of it due to the fact that there is less pressure to conform to narrow lifestyle requirements and attendance pressures, so children are slightly more likely to retain their association with the meetings.
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Post by slowtosee on Dec 28, 2015 12:22:00 GMT -5
As usual, very balanced informative thoughtful statement from Clearday. I miss his participation here. Thanks Cherie
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