No I was Correct In my Asmpt
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Post by No I was Correct In my Asmpt on Jun 30, 2007 1:40:37 GMT -5
Lets see now I counted fast but there are about 400 conventions give or take 30 or so. If each convention had on the conservative side 1000 people attend that is only 400000 people. To be very conservative we will assume that 1 out of every 2 does not make it to convention. So we add another 200000, so then we only have 600000 people who belong to the 2x2s. There is a world population at this time of approximately 06724461233 = X So then 600000/X= What? You do the math. 5.9484319433208635169776136026688e-5 That is on small number of only way saved people as compared to the whole world. very bad assumptions. I have been to conventions in South America--Chile, Argentina, Brazil, Ecuador, etc where there were less than 50 people at the convention--and only about a dozen were regional friends (most were workers and visiting friends). I have also been to enough conventions to know that big conventions of a thousand people are rare--this is NOT the AVERAGE size even in the US. Also, you think that half of all professing people don't even attend one convention? Wow! my parents are retired and they are constantly attending conventions and special meetings. My sister attends 3 full conventions per year--and several more weekends. If you go and read the professing groups on myspace you will see that convention attendance at multiple conventions is the norm. In my experience only the very infirm etc did not attend any convention. the workers do keep numbers-they just don't publicize them. they do this by the address books--the overseer of each field has a tally and knows how many are under his control. The last official number that I knew was in 1988---they estimated 150,000 were under their control world wide. No one has given me a number since then--but before his death Eldon T felt that over the course of this generation (20 years worth from 1988 to 2008) they were going to less 20 percent of the flock. very pessimistic! but it could be true. They definitely have lost numbers--it is very possible that they are down to 120,000 world wide. If they continue to lose numbers at this rate in another generation they will be below the numbers that they had in the 1940's--at least according to senior workers I know. BTW--my uncle is a senior worker/overseer. And no I will not embarass my family by publically saying our name. People can believe it or not---it is still true whether they believe it or not. I started out with Conservative estimate. Conservative leaning to the greatest number that could be. Yes it is a shot in the dark and that is why I inflated the numbers such. You see even when this is done, the end result is such a small fraction of the whole world that it seems kinda, well just stupid to think they are the only ones saved. There was an estimate of approximately 2 billion Christians in the world for the years 2000 which is about 37% of the worlds population. Of course these statistics are not hard fact. It is estimated that the numbers are droping. So then, even with these stats we could do another calculation. Another shot. 2,000,000,000 Chtns/6,000,000,000 Wpop=.33 So then 33 % Ok now lets do it another way. The conservative estimate of 2x2s divided by the 2 Billion Christians for year 2000 600000/2,000,000,000= .0003 That is still a very small number of only saved Christians based on the only way beliefs. The whole point of this little exercise is to point out how unreal these numbers are. It is just not realistic based on that which is stated in Revelations. I only conclude that this belief is totally false and in error that they are the only true body of the Church and hence, the only ones saved. This is just an exercise in conceptualization. Logic checks and balances you might say.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 30, 2007 8:25:41 GMT -5
Lets see now I counted fast but there are about 400 conventions give or take 30 or so. If each convention had on the conservative side 1000 people attend that is only 400000 people. To be very conservative we will assume that 1 out of every 2 does not make it to convention. So we add another 200000, so then we only have 600000 people who belong to the 2x2s. There is a world population at this time of approximately 06724461233 = X So then 600000/X= What? You do the math. 5.9484319433208635169776136026688e-5 That is on small number of only way saved people as compared to the whole world. very bad assumptions. I have been to conventions in South America--Chile, Argentina, Brazil, Ecuador, etc where there were less than 50 people at the convention--and only about a dozen were regional friends (most were workers and visiting friends). I have also been to enough conventions to know that big conventions of a thousand people are rare--this is NOT the AVERAGE size even in the US. Also, you think that half of all professing people don't even attend one convention? Wow! my parents are retired and they are constantly attending conventions and special meetings. My sister attends 3 full conventions per year--and several more weekends. If you go and read the professing groups on myspace you will see that convention attendance at multiple conventions is the norm. In my experience only the very infirm etc did not attend any convention. the workers do keep numbers-they just don't publicize them. they do this by the address books--the overseer of each field has a tally and knows how many are under his control. The last official number that I knew was in 1988---they estimated 150,000 were under their control world wide. No one has given me a number since then--but before his death Eldon T felt that over the course of this generation (20 years worth from 1988 to 2008) they were going to less 20 percent of the flock. very pessimistic! but it could be true. They definitely have lost numbers--it is very possible that they are down to 120,000 world wide. If they continue to lose numbers at this rate in another generation they will be below the numbers that they had in the 1940's--at least according to senior workers I know. BTW--my uncle is a senior worker/overseer. And no I will not embarass my family by publically saying our name. People can believe it or not---it is still true whether they believe it or not. wierd assumptions, your post and estimates make sense and likely accurate within a reaonable margin of error, certainly no more than plus or minus 10%. ET probably had a fairly good idea of the numbers in 1988. If the 1988 numbers were close, I would suggest that the estimates from ET's prediction for 2007 is a little high. It should be no surprise that ET would have predicted a 20% loss over 20 years. There is a huge 2nd generation dying off and few new outsiders coming in, even in 1988. Families are getting smaller and not replacing the losses. ET probably had no idea that the internet was coming either, which has resulted in more losses. My guess is that ET was fairly accurate on the 20% prediction, plus another 10% due to the info on the 'net.
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Post by tally on Jun 30, 2007 14:17:06 GMT -5
The last official world tally was done at the European high council meeting last year. It came out at 297000
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Post by question on Jun 30, 2007 14:45:21 GMT -5
The last official world tally was done at the European high council meeting last year. It came out at 297000 Is that metric?
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Post by To Sharon on Jun 30, 2007 16:37:15 GMT -5
Hello Ha Ha- While I can in one way understand 'your sense of humor' I do feel a sense of 'offence' - If you had any idea of the trauma of leaving the work - wondering how you will ever make a living - the daunting challenge of still being very 'abnormal' in the working world - and all the difficulites that face one in the 'transition' the sense of 'humor' displayed in these quips is actually very hurtful. It was sometime before I found someone who cared and someone who could HELP ME. If you could come up with some practical ways to help these crippled people in bondage out to Liberty in Christ then you will find a greater joy and truly be more useful. With kind regards ex worker and ex system sharon hargreaves Sharon, Is there any system in place to help workers in this traumatic transition? I would love to support a system like that! I think a sponsorship type system would be great.
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would like official numbers
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Post by would like official numbers on Jun 30, 2007 17:35:04 GMT -5
The last official world tally was done at the European high council meeting last year. It came out at 297000 I did not know that they had "official" tallies. Please let me know where these official data can be accessed. BTW, I am aware of several senior workers doing tallies such as mentioned above by ET--Dan Hilton was involved in such an UNofficial count. His numbers were basically identical to those referenced by the person who stated 150,000 in the late 1980s. Other accounts have been done based on numbers fed at convention and attendance etc---these also support a membership of 120,000-135,000. My impression is that senior workers overseers have privately done counts but that no OFFICIAL count is made or published. And I know for a fact that such a count was not a goal of the european high council meeting.....
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Post by sharonhargreaves on Jul 1, 2007 14:06:06 GMT -5
Perhaps it is time for the laity to verbally challenge the system publickly at a convention as to all these questions. It could replace the 'testimony time'--------
sharon hargreaves
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Post by neat on Jul 23, 2007 18:02:32 GMT -5
Neat.
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Post by ranman77007 on Jul 23, 2007 21:11:58 GMT -5
Lets see now I counted fast but there are about 400 conventions give or take 30 or so. If each convention had on the conservative side 1000 people attend that is only 400000 people. To be very conservative we will assume that 1 out of every 2 does not make it to convention. So we add another 200000, so then we only have 600000 people who belong to the 2x2s. There is a world population at this time of approximately 06724461233 = X So then 600000/X= What? You do the math. 5.9484319433208635169776136026688e-5 That is on small number of only way saved people as compared to the whole world. do the algebra.. todays population vs. the population of 8 million in noahs day. 8,000,000 is to 1 as 06724461233 is to x (or whatever, todays population... i made the equation... let someone else solve for x...just cross multiply, simplify, ...... i'm eating ice cream, and being in love with my friend.
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Post by Calvin on Jul 23, 2007 21:13:47 GMT -5
Perhaps it is time for the laity to verbally challenge the system publickly at a convention as to all these questions. It could replace the 'testimony time'-------- sharon hargreaves Why? Who cares? It's just numbers.
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3
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Post by 3 on Jul 23, 2007 21:32:24 GMT -5
Sharon:
Although I am no longer a believer I so appreciate your posts! As an ex worker, you have gone through experiences that many of us will never fully comprehend. Yet you are able to look on the bright side and carry on. I appreciate that about you!
I love your words: 'It comes to mind that the reason that workers meetings are mostly testimonies of commitment to go on is in fact because 'going on' and hanging on are quite a challenge. That's why they always sing "go labour on- spend and be spent-" It sounds spiritual and meaningful but it also can be part of the process in the mind that keeps you grinding at the mill.'
So true. I think the majority of the friends' testimonies of committment are for the same reason - they convince themselves to stay in each time they talk about their shortcomings and how they vow to do better, etc.
As a ex worker, you would know the difficulty of leaving the work with the mere pittance you are given - $200 or $300?
Let me repeat a point brought up by another poster - some of us could help out (financially) with workers who want to leave but don't know how to. Some of us could even 'house' a recent ex worker yet we don't know how to get the word out there. Any ideas?
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Post by selah on Jul 23, 2007 21:58:35 GMT -5
At one time (I think it was through the 2x2 email list), there was an offer to include your home as a haven for workers who were in need. On the Research and Information Services website www.workersect.org/on the Sources page, there are some email addresses available for ex-workers needing support. Also, there was an unofficial support system in the planning called "Hearts Extended." For some crazy (call it 'over 50 brain'), I can't remember who was looking after that. Maybe someone else remembers?? I feel terrible that I don't. It was such a great idea! Blessings, Linda
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Post by Bump on Jul 26, 2007 3:11:57 GMT -5
Bump
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